Forecast: Thursday November 3, 2016


This afternoon: Mostly cloudy, a few breaks of sun. Showers developing. High 66-72. Wind west around 10 mph.

Tonight: Showers end early, clearing overnight. Low near 45. Wind north 10-15 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 55-60. Wind north 12-18 mph.

Tomorrow night: Mostly clear and cool. Lows 32-38. Wind north 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind northwest 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 55.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60.

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November 2, 2016 Technical Weather Discussion

Upper Levels: An intensifying upper level trough moves into the area tomorrow before shifting to eastward on Friday but Troughing will persist near the northeastern states into the middle of next week. Continue reading

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Forecast Discussion: More early season Wintery Weather Late week

Discussion: An unseasonably cool airmass will remain in place through the middle of the week with temperatures struggling through the 40s tomorrow and Wednesday and lows falling into the low 30s. A frontal system approaches from the west on Thursday helping to push a warm front into the region late in the day. Warm air overrunning the cold air in place will bring a brief period of light snow or mixed precipitation for areas north of I84 during the early morning on Thursday before rain moves in for everyone late in the day. Rain tapers off Friday morning giving way to mostly sunny and cool conditions.

Surface: A clipper system departs to our south and east today as a cold front boundary pushes farther offshore. Cold high pressure will gradually build in from the north and west over the next couple days. A developing area of low pressure will approach from the west Thursday and move through on Friday, with brief high pressure following before another couple weak frontal systems move through.

Upper Level: The jet will remain overhead or just to our south over the next few days with troughing lingering in the east. A few shortwave troughs will make their way through the area along the periphery of a slow moving southern ridge Thursday through Sunday.

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Unsettled Weekend of Weather Ahead

While you are all enjoying a beautiful fall weekend, the weather pattern unfolding ahead paints a very different picture for next weekend. As temperatures moderate early next week the first of a pair of weak cold fronts will approach on Monday spreading some clouds in for the day. The second one will approach around midweek, but a warm air push out ahead of it will bring sunshine and above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. The front may stall near or just to our south Thursday setting the stage for a more unsettled weather pattern leading into next weekend. Continue reading

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Ryan Gallagher Broadcast Demos


2019 Full Forecast:



July 2018:

June 13, 2018:

More radio cuts to come!

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Storm Threat Outlook (Update): Hurricane Matthew

Threat: Tropical

Timing: Saturday evening through Sunday Afternoon

For: Long Island and Connecticut

Discussion: A ridge of high pressure will crest over eastern New England later this week. As the ridge shifts east this weekend, all eyes will turn towards the eventual progression of powerful hurricane Matthew. It is expected to emerge from the Caribbean into the Bahamas tomorrow before tracking near or over the southeast coast Friday and Saturday. Continue reading

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Storm Threat outlook: Hurricane Matthew


Weakening low pressure moves by the region today. As it does so a ridge of high pressure will build down from Canada before eventually cresting over eastern New England later this week.

As the ridge gradually departs to the northeast this weekend, all eyes will turn towards the eventual progression of powerful hurricane Matthew. It is expected to emerge from the Caribbean into the Bahamas on Wednesday before tracking just offshore of the Carolinas this weekend. A trough and associated frontal system will approach next weekend increasing clouds and bringing some scattered showers.

The manner in which Hurricane Matthew interacts with those features will have big ramifications in the weather we end up seeing especially during the Sunday through Tuesday time period next week.


Even with a track well offshore the upper low and associated frontal system could help draw in tropical moisture from Matthew and deliver significant rainfall for a period of time Sunday. Now is the time to review your preliminary action plan and monitor later forecasts.


There are big discrepancies between the major global models right now surrounding a couple of key patterns:

  • the strength of the Atlantic ridge – which could force this storm much closer to Florida and the Carolinas if the ECMWF (right frame) is correct
  • the evolution of the jet stream (amplified vs flatter)
  • the position and evolution of a western trough by the weekend

The Euro still has a better apparent handle on the overall pattern, which suggests a more offshore track at least for New England. This is a fairly long range forecast though, so it’s important not to write this off just yet.

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September 2016 Precipitation Summary

The Drought situation grew once again for much of the state. Southeastern Connecticut was the beneficiary of a heavy round of rain on Monday, September 19th. Elsewhere across the state a general 1″-3″ was observed. We were only able to squeeze about a half inch of rain from the upper level low and dreary pattern that had overtaken much of the past week before the month ended. Continue reading

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Wet weather to end off the weekend

Discussion: Mostly sunny and seasonable weather lasts through tomorrow with daytime highs in the mid 70’s and lows falling into the 50’s. Gradually becoming milder and more humid as we head into Sunday. Showers and isolated thunder will develop ahead of an approaching frontal system which will eventually push a cold front through – but that may not happen until late Monday. Periods of rain showers linger until around midday Monday before things gradually dry out. Sunshine and warmer weather arrives Tuesday through Thursday. Continue reading

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Next wave of showers arrives Sunday

Discussion: Showers and thunder will continue to depart to our south this evening. The rain is already over for most of the state. Winds back out of the NNE this evening ushering in much cooler drier area by tomorrow.  Daytime highs in the 70’s through Saturday as high pressure brings sunshine and a taste of fall – morning lows may fall into the mid 50’s. It will be a bit warmer Sunday ahead of another cold front passage, with another round of showers expected with the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Gradual clearing Monday, and Brilliant sunshine Tuesday as High pressure builds in from the west. Continue reading

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