Meteorological Muses

Well my snow map for this past weekend’s event was a total bust, there was really very little cold air for the system to work with, and it ended up being mostly rain with sort of a sleety icy mix at the start. It is real evident that a pattern shift has already begun. This is the fourth storm in a row that has been partially or entirely rain in the last two weeks. While, cold air still seems to remain entrenched it does appear that it has eroded substantially from where it was 14 days ago. Does this mean that snow is over? Absolutely not. It can not be denied, however, that we are now in the steady climb towards more of a spring weather pattern.

I want to show you something quickly though with regards to the late week storm, I’m not really paying much attention to the computer guidance right now because it is all over the place.

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Both the North Atlantic and the Arctic Oscillations are going neutral to negative in the next 10 days, which favors a colder storm track in the East. I think we could be looking at a large snow storm anywhere along a line from from the DC metro up to central Maine. Obviously that axis could shift with time, but honestly if it goes anywhere, I think it will be further east or even out to sea.

The Tuesday storm next week looks to be more of the same kind of thing we have experienced in the last week for southern New England, maybe even rainier. There is not much cold air out ahead of this storm to work with. We will have widespread high temperatures in the 40’s during the day on Monday and there is no question the precipitation will start off warm. How quick the cold air advection takes over will dictate where you get your more moderate snowfall amounts, map later. Until then…