Winter’s Last Hurrah, or Another Forecast Model Mirrage?

So what’s the deal this week. Similar setup to the last storm – low moves through the lakes, different origins this time – last storm started off as a clipper – this one essentially cuts up into the high plains and the propagates eastward. A weak secondary shows up off the coast of New Jersey and essentially continues a zonal progression with the benchmark.

If you look at the upper level pattern, it’s atrocious. The place where that secondary low is trying to form is actually slightly out in front of a small ridging feature – which will suppress it eastward out to sea. A briefly strong burst of snow from overrunning warm air (isentropic lift) will be the story in southern areas. Up near Massachusetts, cold air may win out for the duration of the storm, which I still think is light overall, but the storm could be a bit more troublesome in terms of wintery weather.

Here’s the snow map I posted on twitter yesterday afternoon:

Folks – this storm is not going to be a big deal. Some areas of central New England could pick up a quick 4-7 inches of snow, others may see next to nothing at all. We have to continue to watch this storm carefully, but for most areas I don’t expect this to be a warning criteria event.

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