Potential For a Major Severe Weather Outbreak Tomorrow

An upper level trough has stalled near the Canadian maritime, while a frontal boundary just to our north at the surface will become the focus for some severe development tomorrow.

I’m particularly concerned about tomorrow across our area because of the amount of low level moisture available. When you through in Daytime heating for a few hours it will be more tan sufficient to overcome that cap. Theta E which takes into account moisture (equivalent potential temperature) is through the roof across a corridor of Southern New England during the afternoon tomorrow. The is a snapshot from the GFS at 18z Wednesday.

Southwesterly winds across the region out ahead of the slow moving front will keep us warm and work to neutralize the Atlantic’s influence on boundary level conditions. A wind shift to the northwest on the north side of the boundary will provide some good frontogenic forcing, it certainly will enable strong enough updrafts to generate some large hail producers. With already steep lapse rates in place, this could be a significant severe weather day across most of our area here in Connecticut.

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