Unsettled Weekend of Weather Ahead

While you are all enjoying a beautiful fall weekend, the weather pattern unfolding ahead paints a very different picture for next weekend. As temperatures moderate early next week the first of a pair of weak cold fronts will approach on Monday spreading some clouds in for the day. The second one will approach around midweek, but a warm air push out ahead of it will bring sunshine and above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. The front may stall near or just to our south Thursday setting the stage for a more unsettled weather pattern leading into next weekend.

A couple features to note:

  1. trough energy gets trapped underneath the eastern ridge
    Screen Shot 2016-10-14 at 10.37.05 AM.png
  2. This lingers near the western Bahamas for several days as ridging wave breaks over it.
  3. From there solutions diverge over what happens with this energy. There is a patch of low level shear vorticity leftover from hurricane nicole’s interaction with a boundary along the east coast. Both the GFS and CMC try to consolidate that energy in the medium range.

    The CMC develops a tropical system, the GFS develops a weaker low that shears out as it moves north, and the ECMWF brings a weak low into the gulf as the ridge slides east before eventually getting pulled into a deep trough. There are also huge differences at 500mb, with the GFS being slower with the evolution – cutting the new western trough off in the southern US for a period, while the CMC and ECMWF both maintain an amplifying open wave.

The bottom line – stormy weather is on the horizon whether it’s a tropical, non-tropical or a little of each lives to be seen.

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