Meteorological Muses

Discussion: An upper level cutoff low over the Ohio Valley will retrograde and fade out over the next couple days. This is evidenced by the rain that is finally starting to slow down over the hard hit areas of Central Pennsylvania up through Scranton into New York. A stalled out frontal boundary just south of Long Island is keeping much of Southern New England on the cooler and drier side of things. Not only that but it’s been mostly sunny!

Short term: NAM and the GFS diverge on how far north Katia’s rain shield gets during the next 24 hours, but it is still possible for Cape Cod and the Islands to get a couple of heavier rain showers with gusty winds for a brief time.

Yesterday’s post had the latest on the tropical situation — there are a few changes that I will make to it.

Tropical Storm NATE: My new threat level for this storm is MODERATE with Southern Texas being in the primary threat for any us landfall.

• Very weak steering aloft in the gulf of Mexico leaves almost nothing to force this storm to the East.
• The more western track makes it increasingly likely that dry air from Texas will constrict NATE’s ability to strengthen as it nears landfall
• See Updated Map below:

Tropical Storm MARIA: Threat Level MODERATE, southeastern US

• Although it’s formation has suffered substantially from sheering winds aloft, these lessen substantially further west as has been the trend through most of this hurricane season.
  
• Big question mark remains about the upper level conditions once Maria reaches Puerto Rico. Models have a strengthening upper level jet building over the northern US in the next several days. The timing of Maria’s northward turn will significantly impact the proximity of this storm to land likely as a tropical storm, perhaps as a minimal hurricane.