Nate next likely threat to US Mainland; Katia gone and Maria likely gone

Discussion: An Upper Level trough remains draped over the Ohio valley as a connected surface low cuts up just to the east over West Virginia. This disturbance, which has already been bringing large rainfall amounts to parts of the northeast, will continue to do so into the better part of Thursday.

Short Term (today-Friday): A positive tilted upper level trough just west of the Ohio Valley will serve as a good steering mechanism to protect the northeast from the tropics. The surface low falls apart over the Ohio valley as Hurricane Katia makes it’s closest approach to southeastern New England Thursday night into Friday. Heavy showers and Gusty Winds are possible over far southern and eastern sections with any rain bands that make it ashore.

In the last day we have had two recent tropical developments and I want to deal with them with respect to their threat levels.

Tropical Storm Maria: This storm gets a LOW threat from me for two reasons.

  • The environment will not be conducive for further development in the eastern Atlantic. Maria will not spend enough time out there for conditions to improve.
  • The storm is currently racing to the west, even the computers are picking up on this now. It is looking increasingly likely that this storm may catch on the the same mechanism that is booting Katia out into the open Atlantic

Tropical Storm Nate: The Storm gets a HIGH threat from me

  • Most computer guidance is suggesting a period of rapid development of this storm in the gulf and conditions are ripe for it. Until this point in the season there has not been a lot of significant tropical activity in this area. Unlike the Atlantic which has seen significant amounts of upwelling from the passage of several strong storms, the gulf remains warm and largely untouched so far.
  • My Forecast Track/Intensity Below:

*This forecast is solely my own, and the way I see it based on the pattern right now. It is essential that you follow your professional meteorologists and the latest National Hurricane Center Updates if you are potentially in the path of this storm. Some of the computers have indicated much more robust development of the storm during the course of it’s track. It is a realistic possibility that this storm could become a major to catastrophic hurricane. The timing is also extremely uncertain.

I’ll have more tomorrow – In the meantime, enjoy…

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