Long Range, AO Breakdown? Where are the Temps Going?

A lot of questions are arising about the state of the winter going into the mid-late December time period. We’ve been locked into a patten that has kept much of the cold air locked up in Canada with more of a zonal North Atlantic Jet, and a zonal to even ridge-like pattern over the northeast. The question becomes: how long will it be until this finally breaks down?

The truth of the matter is that we’ve been primarily positive for the better part of a month now, and here’s the forecast from the CPC site:

Since this is a significant driving factor for winter weather on the east coast, it’s difficult to look at the forecast for the next two weeks with very much optimism. Any cold shots that come through will not stick around long because there’s simply no blocking out there, and the NAO forecast isn’t that much better.

The significant positive anomalies are likely for the next 1-2 weeks. There are signs that this may start to break down Christmas week. Overall, confidence is dropping as far as the possibility of a snow storm before Christmas. January-February we may see winter try to get cranking for a little while but at this point it looks like the temperature trend in the northeast will favor an above average, mild pattern.

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