February is Here – Outlook for First Full Week!

A positive tilted upper shortwave trough over the great lakes is part of a broader one stretching to the east. Zonal upper level flow over the northeastern United States and a surface high continue to dominate the weekend pattern. At the surface, what was the Denver blizzard now remains as a broad area of low pressure just south of Kentucky.

The upper level forcing is really not all that conducive to significant development before this system moves offshore. Still can’t rule out some light snow across parts of the mid-Atlantic region, but further north just expect dry conditions with some occasional cloud cover.

It is an interesting time now looking at some of the reversals we have started to see in the teleconnections. Dr. Ryan Maue’s site shows the analysis and deterministic forecasts of some of the operational models – here is a look at the ECMWF’s Deterministic NAO forecast/bias and we are starting to see signs of that much desired block developing. When that happens we really start to look more intently at potential low development because it becomes more likely that something may try and develop up the coast when that reversal occurs.

Into the week nothing major seems to jump in the way except for some weak clipper systems Looking out into next weekend, we see signs in the GFS of a development that might catch interests. A coastal low formation around the 11th that spreads precipitation up the East coast – with a block. Image Courtesy of NCEP. Time will tell, but this is at least of interest in what has been a monotonous winter for us so far here in New England.


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