Discussion: A strong Upper level trough approaches the east coast and cuts off in the southern mid atlantic. A coastal low in the southeast will undergo secondary redevelopment in the eastern Carolinas this weekend, rapidly intensify and track northeast.
Areas of Greatest Concern: Virginia/West Virginia up into the Washington, DC metroplex. Widespread significant snows are also possible from the North Carolina Mountains to Southern New England. Although I should mention that some of the guidance continues to show New England as a tricky forecast area. This is still a low confidence forecast with potential for snow amounts to end up much lower than currently predicted. **1:01 PM Update** Confidence is now increasing in smaller totals for much of southern New England – a map update may be required later today to account for this.
Model Consensus continues to pin the heaviest snows in the mid atlantic region. This mornings 00Z and 06Z GFS model indicated very large snowfall totals extending into southern New England but remained significant outliers to their respective ensembles. Current belief is that there is potential for up to a foot in southern new england. In addition, high winds generating potential blizzard conditions and significant coastal flooding with that ENE fetch across Long Island sound. A full moon means higher than usual astronomical high tides as it is. This has potential to be a damaging storm for coastal areas.
- Western/Southern Areas: NC, TN, VA, WV – Friday Morning – Saturday Morning
- MD, DE, PA, NJ – Friday Night – Saturday Night
- SNE – Saturday Morning – Sunday Morning