Sharp Snowfall cutoff on the Cusp of SNE

Finally beginning to find some clarity in the forecast for Southern New England, which has basically been sitting on the northern fence of the storm zone all week. Guidance is converging on a drier solution for much of our area. The dividing line between a substantial snow storm and a much lesser storm is setting up right around Coastal Connecticut. The question has always been how far north does the northward of extent of the blizzard get. It’s been one of the more troublesome parts of the forecast because of the factors: storm track, strength, and the influence of dry air from the high pressure system to the north. The gradient is extremely sharp and this storm is no exception.

gfs_tprecip_nyc_17.pngThis morning’s run of the GFS model (06 UTC) illustrates this well with indications that significant snow could fall in parts of long island, while only flurries/light snow would occur in Connecticut near the Massachusetts border. This is still a high precision low confidence forecast and it doesn’t take a large southward shift to really lower those snowfall totals. We’ll keep an eye on it. This is my best guess for now at what our region will see snowfall wise.

preliminary thoughts.png

Blizzard conditions are not out of the question in southern areas with the winds really picking up, especially if any of the heavier snow bands make it onshore.. Long Island and New York City are your best bets for significant snow, which is why the national weather service has them under a blizzard watch. Once again the timing for this storm is Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

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