Rain midweek, with a likely Cold end to February

Discussion: Winter isn’t over, but the persistent snowy pattern that gripped the northeast for an 11 day stretch earlier this month, clearly ended last week. There is some active weather in the forecast for next week, so let’s see how it affects your outlook.

  • Upper Levels: 
    • A 500mb shortwave trough transits northern new england today. A Zonal flow pattern sets up over head for the second half of the weekend. A weak shortwave transits southern new england monday. A long wave trough digs in over the central US early to midweek, strengthening and moving over the east coast by the end of the week there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the strength and progression of this feature.
  • Surface:
    • A broad area of high pressure stretches from the southeastern United States up into the western Atlantic off shore of the east coast. An area of low pressure stenches from Northern Canada down to Northern new england.  A weak low develops just offshore on Monday and passes south and east.
    • By late Tuesday, attention turns to a developing surface low in the gulf coast states which strengthens and lifts northeastward along a track that takes it near or to the west of our region.
  • Model Analysis for Next Week
    • The GFS ensembles favor a track over central pennsylvania and into Northwestern New England
    • The ECMWF ensembles favor a track from the mid-atlantic coast to over southern new England
    • The GFS is stronger with the overall progression of the 500mb trough. The Euro is slower with the northern energy piece and amplifies the larger trough a little more gradually. Both ensembles retain a cold airmass in the New England region for a few days following the storm. For now using a blend of the GFS/ECMWF solution.

Forecast: Mild weather continues into Sunday. Cooler weather for Monday and Tuesday following a weak cold front passage. A mostly rain event is likely for midweek with a storm track over or west of the region. Cold, dry weather returns for next weekend.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny with a high near 50

Sunday night: chance of light rain/snow, low near 32ºF

Monday: Cooler, seasonable with highs near 42

Monday Night: some clouds around, cold lows near 25

Tuesday: increasing clouds High 38

Tuesday night-Wednesday Night: Rain likely – Highs 40’s, lows 30’s

Thursday – Friday: fair weather returns, colder – Highs 30’s

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