Meteorological Muses

Synopsis:

Threat: snowfall greater than 6″ Sunday afternoon and evening

Probability: 25%

Location: Southeastern New York and New England

Discussion: A 500mb closed low slips southeastward from the Dakotas towards the Ohio river valley and eventually gets absorbed into an approaching trough rotating down from Central Canada as it approaches the New England States. At the surface, an area of disturbed weather along a sharp frontal boundary in the gulf coast states develops into a organized low pressure system as it moves off of the southeast Coast. This low is expected to track northeastward and strengthen Saturday into Sunday and pass somewhere near the 40/70 benchmark Sunday night.

What’s new: The threat for significant snowfall has lowered over the last 24 hours with an increasing percentage of the guidance suite favoring a less intense storm system a little farther offshore. Better understanding the evolution of the upper level trough will help identify the heavy snow threat’s western extent. It does look like the highest chance for a significant snowfall is in eastern New England.