Meteorological Muses

Discussion: Increasing clouds into tomorrow with highs in the mid 70’s. Hermine will extend its influence on our weather beginning tomorrow night with considerable cloud cover and a gusty east-northeast wind developing.  Occasional rain begins Sunday and lasts into Monday. Showers may linger into Tuesday as Hermine is slow to depart. Sunny warm weather returns by midweek as Hermine departs and high pressure builds back in..

Impact Statement: . The National Hurricane Center puts the probability of tropical storm force winds (40+ mph) in our region at just above 50%. Expect a long duration pounding surf with dangerous rip currents on all Atlantic facing beaches. There is a growing coastal flooding risk with a prolonged time period of east-northeasterly winds and the coinciding high astronomical tide cycle with the new moon – particularly for the Jersey Shore, Long Island south shore and the western Long Island sound. Locally a 2″-4″ surge is expected. This will inundate some low lying road and beach access points.

Short Term Forecast:

12AM – 4AM

• Skies: Mostly cloudy
• Temperatures: 68 –> 60
• Winds: NE 5 mph
• Precip: 0%

4AM – 8AM

• Skies: Mostly cloudy
• Temperatures: 60 –> 66
• Winds: NE 5 mph
• Precip: 0%

8AM – 12AM

• Skies: Mostly cloudy
• Temperature: 66 –> 72
• Winds: NE 5-10 mph
• Precip: 0%

Three Day Forecast:

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with a Low near 60.

Saturday: Considerable cloudiness with some early breaks of sunshine. High near 76. Winds Northeast 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night: Considerable cloudiness. East northeast wind 9-14 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with occasional rain developing accompanied by gusty east-northeast winds 18-26 mph with gusts to 30 mph. High 74-78.

Technical: With strong high pressure high pressure shifting to our northeast, Hermine will stall close by and redirect towards the mid atlantic coast for a time before continuing a drift out to sea. Tropical storm conditions are possible for New England but the most severe impacts will stay south of long island. The trends need to be monitored as a reasonable worst case scenario does still include heavy rain and nor’easter like battering wind with signficant coastal flooding impacts. In the meantime ridging over the south-central and western US gradually expands northeastward by the middle of next week with broad high pressure in place at the surface.

Graphical: