Timing: Saturday evening through Sunday Afternoon
For: Long Island and Connecticut
Discussion: A ridge of high pressure will crest over eastern New England later this week. As the ridge shifts east this weekend, all eyes will turn towards the eventual progression of powerful hurricane Matthew. It is expected to emerge from the Caribbean into the Bahamas tomorrow before tracking near or over the southeast coast Friday and Saturday.
A trough and associated frontal system will approach late Saturday and the manner in which Hurricane Matthew interacts with it will have big ramifications on the weather we end up seeing Sunday
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE STORM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
Taken verbatim, this track would keep the strongest winds offshore; HOWEVER: the upper trough and associated frontal system will help draw in and focus tropical moisture from Matthew delivering potentially significant rainfall to a narrow corridor between Philly and Boston during the day Sunday (as much 3 to 6 inches of rain).
The morning model suite keeps the strongest winds south of our area.
Three Scenarios to keep in Mind
- LIKELY: A stronger Atlantic ridge will produce a more inland track over the southeast coast. This track would bring a significantly WEAKER storm into New England with rain and some wind.
- POSSIBLE: A flatter, less amplified jet stream configuration will support: a track farther away from the northeast coast would keep the storm strong but confine most impacts offshore.
- UNLIKELY: A track that avoids or grazes the southeast coast but comes more directly into our region brings the risk for a more significant tropical cyclone impact.
NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR PRELIMINARY ACTION PLAN AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS IN CASE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS BECOME NECESSARY.