Thursday June 1, 2017 Forecast Discussion

Across Connecticut temperatures range from 58ºF to 61ºF this morning with skies becoming mostly sunny. Winds along the coast are southwesterly from 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Further inland it’s lighter and more variable around 5 mph and anywhere from south to southeasterly. A stationary front boundary is analyzed just inland of the immediate coast with a cold front beginning to slide towards the Hudson Valley. The front will cross the state today, behind which an axis of high pressure will begin to work into the area for tonight into Friday.

An upper level closed low will slide from just north of the Great Lakes region to near or just north of northern Maine by late Friday. Strongest DPVA will move over the state late Friday with the trough shifting east of the region Saturday. Weak high pressure will nose in from the west on Saturday before our next disturbance drops across the high plains, through the Great Lakes and into our region by late Sunday. That system will linger into early next week.

Any leftover fog and low lying stratus will continue to mix out this morning. Skies will become mostly sunny. Elevated instability and even some modest surface based instability in eastern Connecticut ahead of the cold front moving across the state will be enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. With anomalously cold air aloft, any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce small hail.

After a clear quiet night tonight, Friday will feature partial sunshine with a few developing scattered thunderstorms as the upper level low rotates across the region.

Mostly sunny skies Saturday will give way to increasing cloudiness Sunday with rain showers developing by Sunday night. The wet weather will linger into Monday and Tuesday before things begin to dry out on Wednesday.

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