Tuesday’s Discussion – Tropics Stay Active

Synopsis: A deep upper level trough extends over the eastern part of the country. Additional energy will be supplied as the remnant low of tropical storm lee continues bring tropical moisture up from the gulf. Lee’s associated surface low will continue to migrate to the north from the western Carolinas up into the Ohio valley by Thursday this week. Severe Weather in the eastern parts of North Carolina and Virginia will move off shore while heavy rain across much of the interior from D.C to Vermont will persist for the next 2-3 days.

Short Term Outlook (tonight-Wednesday night): A surface trough axis coupled with a persistent onshore flow will provide sufficient forcing for a potentially significant rainfall in parts of the northeast. Up to 10 inches of rain is possible in the most persistent bands Tuesday Night and Wednesday on an axis that looks to set up along a line from South Central PA to Southern Vermont. River flooding is possible in areas where the ground is already saturated Irene a little over a week ago.

Medium Term (Thursday-Saturday): The Remnant surface low will fall apart over the Ohio valley. Meanwhile, Hurricane Katia out over the Atlantic will make it’s closest approach to Southeast New England on Friday Night. Katia could potentially bring tropical storm conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands for a brief time with any outer rain bands that make it ashore. Otherwise the east should remain dry during the period.

I am watching for two other areas of tropical development going into the weekend. One in the southwest gulf that could potentially impact portions of the gulf coast next week. The second is a newly formed tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic that looks to be taking a significantly more southerly track than Katia’s. While it is possible for this storm to affect the east coast during the latter half of next week it will have to be watched. The current pattern has been favoring the re-curvature of storms as they try to make their way east. Some early indications are already hinting at that. There is much more that has to be resolved between now and then before any kind of certainty can be associated with that forecast.

Something to think about – enjoy the weather.

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