Snow Update December 7, 2011

Here’s what we are looking at in terms of the frontal boundary, I was saying yesterday that the position of this is critical to where the storm lines itself up:

The one thing I notice is the cold air is locked up pretty far west. I’m liking a track that starts in central Virginia and moves over or just east of Long Island. Now as the storm forms, it will draw some of that cold air towards it and there will be some dynamic cooling as well. The one thing I’m noticing though is that surface dew points are quite high. Here’s the sounding from Albany:

We are talking about a highly saturated sounding, to the room for evaporative cooling may be limited. I think advection is going to be a more important source of cooling in this storm than dynamic cooling is, you really need dry air in the mid levels to cool, and I just don’t see it. As a result, I like an axis from the Appalachians up trough Albany, and then on into central Maine for your heaviest snows.

All this taking into account I think the map I posted yesterday looks good, I have no major changes to it:

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