Meteorological Muses

The first day of meteorological winter has arrived. A strong El Nino has exerted its influence on our overall temperatures this fall. November was a month with record setting warmth. Central Park’s average temperature of 52.8ºF broke the previous record set back in 2001.

Discussion: The area of high pressure that was in control yesterday has slipped off to our east in the north Atlantic. An upper level cutoff low sits on top of an occluded storm system in the upper Midwest today. Out ahead of it along a steep temperature boundary is a stream of moisture and a newly organizing surface low in the mid Atlantic. Cold air wedged in the northeast has provided enough leverage for warm air from an approaching front to generate overrunning cloudiness and precipitation. As the upper level low migrates east and starts to phase with the northern stream again, this surface low will pass near or over southern new England. A cold front approaches by Wednesday evening and high pressure returns for the second half of the week.

Forecast: Intermittent light rain will continue this afternoon and into this evening. Light rain continues for the day on Wednesday with temperatures rising into the 50’s. Temperatures start to fall Thursday with highs in the 40’s expected. Conditions will improve during the day and become sunny going into the weekend.