Meteorological Muses

Despite the calendar, another round of March winter weather is on the way for some in Southern New England. A large wrapped up area of low pressure in the central US will bring stormy weather into the region tomorrow through the first part of the weekend. 

The low will track towards the Great lakes region and eventually transfer its energy and redevelop in the Mid-Atlantic region – eventually passing nearby offshore south of Connecticut.

The main area of uncertainty concerns the northern flank of this system, in particular the northern third of Connecticut where enough low level cold air will be present for an extended period of wintry precipitation. Here’s a look at the situation at 8 PM Friday in northern Connecticut:

The NAM and the GFS show very different profiles near 850mb (or about a mile above our heads). A difference of a few degrees in the temperature at this level will cause either snow or sleet to be favored.

Note what’s causing it though – significant differences in the track of the mid level low with the GFS placing it south of Long Island and bringing much of Connecticut into the heavier snow, the NAM tracks it right over head, bringing a large nose of milder air in at 850mb for the duration of the storm, while the Euro is more of a blend of the two – tracking it over Long Island.

Ultimately the forecast is going to come down to the evolution and track of this feature. Right now, it still looks like a cold rain in the southern part of the state with a more likely rain, sleet and wet snow fest as you get closer to the Massachusetts border.